In the distribution equipment business across Central Asia and Africa, what we see is not "transformers sell well". It is the same group of problems repeating in every market: not enough power to go round, equipment that was installed twenty or thirty years ago, and losses and failures leaking money out of the accounts year after year. This article lays the problems out, then sets out what to check and how a project actually gets delivered.
Problem one: demand is growing faster than the grid
The Eurasian Development Bank's report Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition, published on 19 March 2026, records that in a region of more than 80 million people, electricity demand is growing by 3% to 6% a year, and that consumption will rise from about 270 billion kWh today to about 370 billion kWh by 2030, roughly four tenths more (the report's own wording; that works out at +37% across those two end points). Uzbekistan is the clearest case: according to the Uzbek state media outlet UzDaily, national consumption rose from 93.5 billion kWh in 2014 to 119.9 billion kWh in 2024 (about 2.5% a year across that decade), and is expected to reach 151.2 billion kWh by 2030, roughly 26% above 2024, or about 3% a year measured from 2014.
Africa's problem is not "growing fast" but "not yet connected". In the 2026 edition of Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report (IEA, IRENA, UNSD, the World Bank and the WHO, published on 24 June 2026), Nigeria is still the country with the largest unelectrified population in the world; World Bank data puts access at 62.5% in Nigeria, 77% in Kenya and 55.3% in Uganda in 2024.
| Market | Key demand-side figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Central Asia | Growing 3%–6% a year; about 370 billion kWh by 2030 (that is +37% across the 270 → 370 billion kWh end points; the report itself says "roughly four tenths") | Eurasian Development Bank report, 19 March 2026 |
| Uzbekistan | About 2.5% a year over 2014–2024; 151.2 billion kWh expected by 2030 (about +26% on 2024) | UzDaily, 2026 (percentages calculated from the end points) |
| Nigeria | Largest unelectrified population in the world; 62.5% access in 2024 | Tracking SDG 7 2026; World Development Indicators |
| Kenya / Uganda | 77% / 55.3% access in 2024 | World Bank World Development Indicators |
Demand is hard; grid expansion is slow. In the years in between, the distribution side has to get through on equipment that can take the strain.
Problem two: ageing equipment, and ageing costs cash
According to Nigerian media reports, the federal government said publicly in 2024 that transformers installed in the 1960s are still in service in some areas; and in August 2025 the industry publication Transformer Technology quoted Nigeria's power minister Adebayo Adelabu as saying that most transmission facilities are more than 50 years old and fail frequently once load rises.
The money you cannot see is worse. In its 2026 First Quarter Report, published in July 2026, Nigeria's Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) records that the weighted average ATC&C loss across distribution companies (billing losses and collection losses combined by NERC's formula) was 37.44%. Broken down: technical and commercial losses 20.76%, collection losses 21.05%. The two components are not additive, because NERC defines ATC&C as [1 − (billing efficiency × collection efficiency)] × 100. NERC's allowed average target for 2026 was 16.92%, which the actual figure exceeds by 20.52 percentage points, and all eleven distribution companies missed their targets; the previous quarter (2025 Q4) stood at 34.90%, so the position deteriorated by 2.54 percentage points in a single quarter. More than a third of the electricity generated never reaches the customer, or is billed and never collected; ageing equipment accounts for a substantial part of that loss.
Who pays for repairing a transformer has become a regulatory question in Nigeria: according to a Punch report in October 2024, NERC indicated that distribution companies may be required to bear the cost of transformer repair and replacement. When an industry's repair bill reaches that level of debate, it is already a general cost. In September 2026 a 330 kV transmission tower in the north-west came down, TCN declared force majeure and Kebbi State was without power for about a week (Daily Post, Africa Eye News). The ageing is systemic.
The money is moving, but the gap is still wide. The World Bank's press release of 15 May 2025, Uzbekistan to Invest in Modernizing Electricity Distribution Networks with World Bank Support, announced a USD 100 million concessional credit focused on integrating renewable generation into the distribution network and improving supply reliability. According to UzDaily on 6 May 2026, Uzbekistan also signed a USD 200 million results-based loan with the Asian Development Bank during the ADB annual meeting, aimed at the same work. Both point to one conclusion: this part of the network has to be replaced, and replaced in volume.
| Three costs of old equipment | How it shows up | Result |
|---|---|---|
| No-load loss | Old core steel and old manufacturing methods, running around the clock | 8,760 hours a year on the meter |
| Load loss | Rises faster than load does | The more you use, the more you lose |
| Failure and repair | Outage, crane, transport, replacement parts | A high cost per event, plus the cost of the outage itself |
| Cost of the outage | Factories stop, businesses close, households burn diesel (Nigeria: ₦3,277.47 per litre in May 2026, NBS) | Usually far larger than the equipment itself |
| Replacement cycle | Frequent failures, early retirement | The cheap unit has to be bought again |
The fix: four things to check when you buy
The first is whether the unit can take the strain. IEC 60076-7:2018, Power transformers – Part 7: Loading guide for mineral-oil-immersed power transformers (currently edition 2, the most recent in this field), is explicit about short-term overload: running above rating is permissible as long as the winding hot-spot temperature and the insulation life model stay within their limits. For our two main classes, 10(6)/0.4 kV and 11/0.4 kV, we design for 20% above rated capacity and continuous operation beyond two hours. That margin corresponds to real conditions: a village switching on every light at once in the evening, irrigation pumps starting together, several machines at a mine energising at the same time. Leave the margin in and tripping falls; size it tight and the money saved up front comes back as repair and replacement in year three.
The second is whether the temperature rise has been given enough room. Within the loading guide's thermal ageing model there is a conversion that has been used for decades: for every 6°C rise in winding hot-spot temperature, insulation ageing doubles. So two transformers that both "work" can be very different: one is still stable after ten years, the other starts failing at six or seven. Before you buy, ask for the temperature rise limits and the test data, not whether the winding is "all copper". You can also ask the manufacturer to provide the hot-spot temperature calculation to that guide, rather than a verbal assurance that it "can be overloaded".
The third is design for the actual site. The same 11/0.4 kV, 630 kVA drawing cannot be sent to every location: at altitude both external insulation and temperature rise need correction; where winter reaches minus thirty or forty, low-temperature impact and oil behaviour matter; salt spray on the coast and dust at a mine site mean higher corrosion protection and ingress ratings. Skip this and the unit will still energise, but its service life will be very different.
The fourth is oil leakage. Over a full lifecycle, leaks are rarely a cracked tank; most start with the sealing rubber ageing first. We have taken the strength and ageing resistance of our sealing rubber up a grade. It is an unglamorous detail, and nobody will compliment you for it on installation day, but the top-ups and inspections it saves over twenty years are real.
Delivery: start with one unit
The product range is oil-immersed distribution transformers at 10(6)/0.4 kV to GOST for Central Asia and 11/0.4 kV to IEC for Africa, from 20 to 2500 kVA, with switchgear up to 35 kV. Altitude, ambient temperature, corrosion conditions and load profile are confirmed per individual project; we do not sell one drawing to everybody.
On lead time, standard batch orders ship 15 days after drawing confirmation. The minimum order is one unit, so you can take a single transformer, install it and judge the result before discussing the rest. Warranty runs one year from shipment. Of the batches delivered recently, the 2026 Uzbekistan, 2024 Nigeria and 2024 Kenya units are all in normal operation. The transformers are built at our own manufacturing base, and overseas sales and after-sales are handled through one point of contact, so the customer deals with a single window from start to finish.
More detail on the range is on our transformer and switchgear page; if you want to compare specifications or sizes before deciding, write to us with your voltage class and load profile.
Sources
The figures above come from public sources: the Eurasian Development Bank report Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition (19 March 2026); UzDaily's 2026 statistics on Uzbek electricity consumption; the 2026 edition of Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report (published 24 June 2026) and the World Bank's World Development Indicators; the World Bank press release on modernising Uzbekistan's distribution networks (15 May 2025); UzDaily's report on the USD 200 million ADB loan (6 May 2026); NERC's 2026 First Quarter Report (published July 2026); Nigerian media reporting of statements by the federal government and the power minister; the Punch report on NERC (October 2024); Daily Post and Africa Eye News reporting on the September 2026 tower collapse; the National Bureau of Statistics Diesel Price Watch (published end of June 2026); and IEC 60076-7:2018.
Voltage classes, certification requirements (GOST or IEC) and operating conditions differ substantially between markets, so the configuration is confirmed project by project.
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